Leaving the EU - Myth 1: “Britain will lose three million jobs as a consequence of leaving the EU”
The Reality: If Britain leaves the EU it will
put in place of its EU membership a UK/EU Free Trade Agreement such as the EEA
Lite Agreement presented in this book to preserve the benefits of trade with
the EU. The EU sells much more to us than we sell to them: currently, the UK’s
trade deficit in manufactured goods with the EU was £56 billion. So, in theory, if there was the very worst
case of a trade war and no trade at all with the EU, the UK would lose the
three million jobs which depend on trade with the EU (10% of all UK jobs (Note: The BBC quoted ONS statistics that
there were 29.16 million in work. Three million jobs therefore represents 10%
of the total), whilst the EU would lose some four million jobs. This simply won’t happen, as the EU would not
want to lose their biggest customer. Even the Lisbon Treaty requires the EU to
make a withdrawal agreement (trade and political) with a nation that leaves the
EU (under Article 50).
Under the EEA Lite model, the UK would
guarantee the 3 million jobs through continued tariff-free access to the EU
Single Market, just as the EEA Agreement currently gives Norway, which exports
five times more than the UK per head. Access to the EU Single Market and Swiss
trade agreements do the same in agreed areas for Switzerland, which exports
three times more per head to the EU than the UK. But whilst both these
countries run a strong surplus with the EU, the UK now runs a massive deficit -
some £56 billion deficit for goods , putting the UK in a stronger negotiating position.
from "Time to Jump" by David Campbell Bannerman MEP
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Time-Jump-Positive-Independent-Agreement/dp/1909698512/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1396289029&sr=8-1&keywords=bretwalda+time+to+jump
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